{
  "assumptions": [
    {
      "confidence": "medium",
      "description": "The model starts from the reported membership total in 1950.",
      "id": "start_population",
      "label": "Starting population"
    },
    {
      "confidence": "high for recent official reports; lower for estimated historical cells",
      "description": "Convert baptisms and children-of-record baptisms are treated as membership additions. New children of record are not treated as same-year member additions.",
      "id": "membership_additions",
      "label": "Membership additions"
    },
    {
      "confidence": "medium for the concept; low to medium for post-reporting-gap estimates",
      "description": "New children of record are record-intake events for children who are not yet baptized. They become membership additions only if later baptized as children of record, usually around age 8. Those baptized at age 9 or older are counted in convert baptisms, so the pipeline can leak into the convert statistic.",
      "id": "children_of_record_pipeline",
      "label": "Children-of-record pipeline"
    },
    {
      "confidence": "low to medium",
      "description": "Deaths of active members, inactive members reaching age 110, and names removed are treated as record exits. These fields are model inputs, not official annual report categories.",
      "id": "losses",
      "label": "Losses"
    },
    {
      "confidence": "medium as a sensitivity display; low as a probability statement",
      "description": "The high- and low-retention scenarios vary the names-removed component by plus or minus 25%. The band is a sensitivity test, not a statistical confidence interval.",
      "id": "scenario_band",
      "label": "Uncertainty band"
    },
    {
      "confidence": "high",
      "description": "No attendance, belief, or activity adjustment is applied. Activity proxies are useful comparison indicators but should not be subtracted directly from membership records.",
      "id": "activity_excluded",
      "label": "Activity excluded"
    }
  ],
  "externalReferences": [
    {
      "label": "Fuller Consideration membership statistics",
      "url": "https://www.fullerconsideration.com/membership.php"
    },
    {
      "label": "Fuller Consideration daily statistics",
      "url": "https://www.fullerconsideration.com/dailystats.php"
    },
    {
      "label": "Mormonism Research Ministry summary of Roundel Mike growth-statistics anomaly analysis",
      "url": "https://mrm.org/the-robust-growth-of-mormonism"
    }
  ],
  "formulas": [
    {
      "expression": "central[t] = central[t-1] + converts[t] + child_of_record_baptisms[t] - deaths_of_active_members[t] - inactive_members_reaching_age_110[t] - names_removed[t]",
      "id": "central",
      "label": "Central estimate"
    },
    {
      "expression": "high[t] = high[t-1] + converts[t] + child_of_record_baptisms[t] - deaths_of_active_members[t] - inactive_members_reaching_age_110[t] - 0.75 * names_removed[t]",
      "id": "high_retention",
      "label": "High-retention scenario"
    },
    {
      "expression": "low[t] = low[t-1] + converts[t] + child_of_record_baptisms[t] - deaths_of_active_members[t] - inactive_members_reaching_age_110[t] - 1.25 * names_removed[t]",
      "id": "low_retention",
      "label": "Low-retention scenario"
    }
  ],
  "generatedAt": "2026-05-03T01:13:56.357729+00:00",
  "id": "membership-flow-model",
  "interpretation": "This is an accounted-membership scenario model, not a measure of religious activity, belief, attendance, or self-identification.",
  "outputs": [
    {
      "centralEstimate": 1111314,
      "centralMinusOfficial": 0,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": 0.0,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 23808,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.957997311827957,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 22808,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 1000,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 1111314,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "derived_formula",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 1111314
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 14700
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 22808
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 37444
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 1863
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 3779.084974
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 142
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 1111314,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 37444,
      "officialMembership": 1111314,
      "sources": [],
      "year": 1950
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 1145379,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -24122,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.02062589792600363,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 26361,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.8802776829407079,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 23205,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 3156,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 1145416,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "derived_formula",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 1169500.6
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 17175
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 23205
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 39658
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 1989
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 4178.823068
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 147
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 1145342,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 39658,
      "officialMembership": 1169501,
      "sources": [],
      "year": 1951
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 1181222,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -46465,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.03784758853883954,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 27522,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.9409199912797035,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 25896,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 1626,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 1181296,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "derived_formula",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 1227687.2
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 16813
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 25896
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 43114
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 2050
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 4664.517312
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 152
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 1181147,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 43114,
      "officialMembership": 1227687,
      "sources": [],
      "year": 1952
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 1216432,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -69442,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.05400374437989171,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 24779,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 1.0400338996731102,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 25771,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": -992,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 1216546,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "derived_formula",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 1285873.8
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 16436
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 25771
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 44535
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 2075
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 4763.732156
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 158
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 1216318,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 44535,
      "officialMembership": 1285874,
      "sources": [],
      "year": 1953
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 1255136,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -88924,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.06616071718205521,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 26163,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 1.040515231433704,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 27223,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": -1060,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 1255291,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "derived_formula",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 1344060.4
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 18573
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 27223
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 48057
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 2011
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 4915.415287
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 166
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 1254980,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 48057,
      "officialMembership": 1344060,
      "sources": [],
      "year": 1954
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 1302319,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -99928,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.07126276611752423,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 36458,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.8998573701245268,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 32807,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 3651,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 1302518,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "derived_formula",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 1402247
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 21669
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 32807
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 48421
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 2147
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 4972.165424
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 173
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 1302120,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 48421,
      "officialMembership": 1402247,
      "sources": [],
      "year": 1955
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 1353042,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -107392,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.07353432569614941,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 34571,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.9700037603771947,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 33534,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 1037,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 1353286,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "derived_formula",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 1460433.6
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 25181
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 33534
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 49861
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 2522
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 5290.56687
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 180
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 1352798,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 49861,
      "officialMembership": 1460434,
      "sources": [],
      "year": 1956
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 1408157,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -80157,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.05385758650392323,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 36885,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.9013148976548733,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 33245,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 3640,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 1408448,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 1488314
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 30129
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 33245
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 51044
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 2946
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 5124.213437
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 189
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 1407865,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 51044,
      "officialMembership": 1488314,
      "sources": [],
      "year": 1957
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 1468957,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -86842,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.05581826444161489,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 37444,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.9650411280846063,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 36135,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 1309,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 1469298,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 1555799
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 33330
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 36135
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 52885
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 3137
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 5329.420199
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 198
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 1468616,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 52885,
      "officialMembership": 1555799,
      "sources": [],
      "year": 1958
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 1532418,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -83670,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.05177317076792848,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 39658,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.9884764738514297,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 39201,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 457,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 1532810,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 1616088
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 33060
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 39201
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 53399
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 3271
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 5323.009503
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 206
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 1532026,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 53399,
      "officialMembership": 1616088,
      "sources": [],
      "year": 1959
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 1614435,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -78745,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.04650716403453856,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 43114,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.9785452521222805,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 42189,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 925,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 1614881,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 1693180
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 48586
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
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        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
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        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
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        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
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          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
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      "centralEstimate": 3243887,
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        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
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          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
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        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
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        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
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        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
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        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
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          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
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        {
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        {
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        {
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      "centralEstimate": 5630674,
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        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
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        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
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        {
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        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
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        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
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          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
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          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
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          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
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          "role": "loss",
          "value": 30836
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        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 17849.95378
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 56062.04622
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      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 13862886,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 106771,
      "officialMembership": 16118169,
      "sources": [
        "https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/2017-statistical-report-april-2018-general-conference"
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      "year": 2017
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    {
      "centralEstimate": 14475517,
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      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 120528,
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      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 86756,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 33772,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 14930404,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 16313735
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 234332
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 86756.0544
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 102102
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 32805
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 18158.73687
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 89904.26313
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      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 14020630,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 102102,
      "officialMembership": 16313735,
      "sources": [
        "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/2018-statistical-report"
      ],
      "year": 2018
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    {
      "centralEstimate": 14718845,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -1846191,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.11145107079755215,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 119917,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.7196,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 86292,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 33625,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 15183475,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 16565036
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 248835
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 86292.2732
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 94266
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 34207
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 18620.86745
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 38972.13255
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      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 14254214,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 94266,
      "officialMembership": 16565036,
      "sources": [
        "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/2019-statistical-report"
      ],
      "year": 2019
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    {
      "centralEstimate": 14839995,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -1823668,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.10943980324134016,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 122273,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.7194,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 87963,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 34310,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 15314025,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 16663663
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 125930
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 87963.1962
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 65440
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 36012
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 19130.93363
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        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
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          "role": "loss",
          "value": 37600.06637
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      "lowRetentionEstimate": 14365965,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 65440,
      "officialMembership": 16663663,
      "sources": [
        "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/april-2021-general-conference-statistical-report"
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      "year": 2020
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    {
      "centralEstimate": 14975720,
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      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 115486,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.7192,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 83058,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 32428,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 15464130,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 16805400
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
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          "role": "addition",
          "value": 168283
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 83057.5312
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 89069
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 38207
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 19890.59253
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        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 57517.40747
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      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 14487311,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 89069,
      "officialMembership": 16805400,
      "sources": [
        "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/2021-statistical-report-april-2022-conference",
        "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/facts-and-statistics"
      ],
      "year": 2021
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    {
      "centralEstimate": 15176027,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -1826434,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.10742174324058147,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 116409,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.719,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 83698,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 32711,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 15673346,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 17002461
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 212172
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 83698.071
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 89059
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 39550
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 20375.89321
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 35637
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      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 14678709,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 89059,
      "officialMembership": 17002461,
      "sources": [
        "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/2022-statistical-report-april-2023-conference",
        "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/facts-and-statistics"
      ],
      "year": 2022
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 15387429,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -1867965,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.10825397553947479,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 114550,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.7188,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 82339,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 32211,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 15900018,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 17255394
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 251763
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 82338.54
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 93594
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 40624
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 20994.40384
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 61082
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 14874839,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 93594,
      "officialMembership": 17255394,
      "sources": [
        "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/2023-statistical-report-church-jesus-christ",
        "https://www.deseret.com/faith/2024/11/23/enrollment-growth-at-latter-day-saint-universities-rebuts-narrative-about-young-adults-losing-faith/",
        "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/facts-and-statistics"
      ],
      "year": 2023
    },
    {
      "centralEstimate": 15655665,
      "centralMinusOfficial": -1854116,
      "centralPercentDifferenceFromOfficial": -0.10589030211171688,
      "eightYearPriorNewChildrenOfRecord": 109246,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptismRate": 0.7186,
      "estimatedChildOfRecordBaptisms": 78504,
      "estimatedChildrenOfRecordNotBaptizedFromEightYearPriorIntake": 30742,
      "highRetentionEstimate": 16182339,
      "inputs": [
        {
          "key": "official_membership_total",
          "label": "Official membership",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "comparison",
          "value": 17509781
        },
        {
          "key": "converts",
          "label": "Convert baptisms",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 308682
        },
        {
          "key": "cor_baptisms",
          "label": "Children-of-record baptisms",
          "provenance": "estimate",
          "role": "addition",
          "value": 78504.1756
        },
        {
          "key": "new_children_of_record_cor",
          "label": "New children of record",
          "provenance": "official_report",
          "role": "pipeline_intake",
          "value": 91617
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_deaths_of_active_members",
          "label": "Deaths of active members",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 42125
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_inactives_who_reach_age_110",
          "label": "Inactive members reaching age 110",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 20486.48483
        },
        {
          "key": "supplemental_names_removed",
          "label": "Names removed",
          "provenance": "analytical_model",
          "role": "loss",
          "value": 56338
        }
      ],
      "lowRetentionEstimate": 15128991,
      "newChildrenOfRecord": 91617,
      "officialMembership": 17509781,
      "sources": [
        "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/2023-statistical-report-church-jesus-christ",
        "https://www.deseret.com/faith/2024/11/23/enrollment-growth-at-latter-day-saint-universities-rebuts-narrative-about-young-adults-losing-faith/",
        "https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/facts-and-statistics"
      ],
      "year": 2024
    }
  ],
  "range": {
    "endYear": 2024,
    "startYear": 1950
  },
  "summary": "A transparent cohort-flow estimate that starts with reported 1950 membership, adds reported converts and estimated children-of-record baptisms, and subtracts modelled deaths, members reaching record-retention age limits, and names removed.",
  "title": "Membership Flow Model"
}