official report
Figures published in annual statistical reports or official church fact pages.
Methodology
How to read the numbers.
The tables separate reported figures from calculations and estimates. That distinction matters because the church has not reported every category in every year, and some useful comparisons require formulas.
Categories
derived value
Rates, deltas, ratios, and totals calculated from reported figures.
estimate
Values used where a historical figure was not reported consistently.
model
Analytical comparisons that apply stated assumptions to reported figures.
Formulas
Derived cells expose their formulas in the data table. Common examples are year-over-year percentage change, membership per ward or branch, converts per missionary, and totals that combine missionary categories.
Formula-backed values should be read as analytical aids. They are useful for comparing trends, but they are not the same thing as a separately reported source figure.
Historical gaps
The historical record is uneven. Recent annual reports include categories that older reports did not, and some categories changed names or reporting practices. Empty cells generally mean the figure was not available for that year, not that the value was zero.
Reconciliation
When two data sets overlap, reported values already present in the table are retained. Supplemental values are used to fill blank historical cells, but they do not replace an existing reported or calculated value.
Forward-looking projections are excluded from the public historical data. Activity rates, inactive membership, names removed, and similar fields are model outputs; they should be read as scenario estimates, not reported church statistics.
Older opaque spreadsheet-only estimates are excluded from the public data. Model outputs are published only when the assumptions, formulas, and downloadable model artifact are also available.
Membership-flow model
Analytical model outputs are now published as a named model rather than hidden spreadsheet logic. The model starts from a reported base year, adds converts and estimated children-of-record baptisms, subtracts stated record-exit assumptions, and publishes central, high-retention, and low-retention scenarios.
The model is not a measure of activity, attendance, belief, or self-identification. It is an accounted-membership estimate with visible assumptions and a downloadable JSON artifact.
Children of record
New children of record are not the same thing as new baptized members. They are a record-intake category for children who have not yet been baptized. The model therefore does not add same-year new children of record to membership. It adds estimated children-of-record baptisms instead.
The distinction matters because some children of record are never baptized at age 8, and some may later be counted as convert baptisms if they are baptized at age 9 or older. The data table and charts now expose this pipeline separately.